Though not predictable, you can always rely on the real estate market in Telluride to change. Here are some predictions for the housing market in 2022.
2022 will fall just short of record-breaking.
On a national level, Zillow’s forecast calls for 11% home value growth in 2022. That’s down from their projected 19.5% in 2021, a record year-end pace of home value appreciation, but would still rank among the strongest years Zillow has tracked. In Telluride, we’ve yet to experience any type of “price correction” that so many buyers are hoping for. However, although the pandemic is still leading Americans to relocate to remote areas like Telluride with their Internet-accessible jobs, we may start to see some 2020 “Telluride Covid Transplants” head back to their hometowns to get back to reality in 2022. This could lead to an increase in inventory and a leveling-out of appreciation.
With the exception of the Great Recession, Telluride typically sees stair-step price adjustments, as opposed to peaks and valleys. So to put it simply, if you’re waiting for prices to go down to jump on your Telluride dream, get comfortable, because you may not be going anywhere.
Mortgage rates may rise, but inventory may rise as well.
The Telluride market is likely to cool compared to 2021, but it will still be active... It may still be a seller’s market in many areas, but there’s likely to be more opportunities and wiggle room for homebuyers. A ‘priced out’ buyer should be able to find more options. Experts also reinforce that 2022’s housing market is not at all likely to crash — the conditions we’re seeing are nothing like those that led up to the crisis of 2008.
The Bad News for Telluride Locals: Rents are expected to outpace home price growth over the next year (followed by good news, too!)
Nationwide, rent growth went from minimal to double-digit pace in 2021 as the U.S. made substantial progress against the pandemic. With the rental vacancy rate continuing near its historic lows during the pandemic, in which just 5.7% to 6.8% of rental housing units are vacant at any point in time compared to 7% or more, historically, renters are also contending with limited supply and excess demand that leads to upward pressure on rents.
That’s nationwide. Telluride is essentially seeing that trend on steroids. With so many transplants looking to rent for a season, or for a year, on top of historically low affordable housing inventory for local workforce, rent prices are only going to continue to rise as long as landlords have the opportunity to cash in on this raging demand.
Thankfully, the Town of Telluride, the Town of Mountain Village, Telluride Ski Resort and Telluride Foundation all have significant workforce housing plans in the works in Telluride, Mountain Village, Ilium and Norwood. These deed-restricted properties, offered both for rent and for sale, will only be available to locals who work full-time in San Miguel County. About 60 new units are expected to be occupied by locals by the end of 2022.
Curious what your home would sell for in the current market? Wondering what your options are to purchase? Reach out to me for a free home value estimate or buyer consultation.
Sources:
Zillow (https://www.zillow.com/research/zillow-2022-housing-predictions-30394/)
Andrina Valdes (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/where-home-prices-headed-2022-200001201.html)
Realtor.com (https://www.realtor.com/research/2022-national-housing-forecast/)
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